FIFA World Cup 2026 on Polymarket

Polymarket is the world’s largest prediction market platform. Since December 2025 it has run over 100 active markets on the 2026 FIFA World Cup, generating more than $1B in total trading volume.

This page is the complete index of every active market — one hub so you can find the analysis you need without searching across dozens of pages.

The tournament winner market is the flagship, with Spain and France co-favourites at 17% implied probability each. Below that, twelve separate group winner markets run across Groups A through L.

Player performance markets cover the top goalscorer race, most goal contributions, most assists, most goalkeeper clean sheets, and the nation whose player wins the golden boot.

Four availability markets ask whether Messi, Neymar, Lamine Yamal, and Iran will participate. Six squad selection markets track specific players before the June 7 deadline. Nine individual match markets are live on key group stage fixtures.

Every section below links to a dedicated analysis article. If you are new to how prediction markets work, see the beginner guide linked above before reading individual market breakdowns.

Spain and France at identical 17% reflects genuine market indecision at the top. The crowd is not picking a clear favourite.

England at 14%, Brazil at 12%, Germany and Argentina at 9% each — meaningful probability is distributed across eight teams, none of which you can confidently dismiss.

Three tournament-level markets are worth tracking alongside the outright winner. The continent winner market has Europe at 71%. The nation to reach the final shows Spain at 30% and France at 29%, running almost level.

The team to advance to knockout stages market has Spain at 98% and Brazil at 97% — near-certainty about the dominant group stage teams.

The most contested group winner market is Group D. USA sits at 38% and Türkiye at 36% — the closest two-team race in the tournament. Türkiye leads all four teams in individual volume despite sitting second, signalling active market disagreement.

Group C has Brazil at 75% — the most dominant group favourite on Polymarket. Group H has Spain at 78%. Group B presents a compelling 55% vs 30% market given Canada’s co-host advantage.

The Group I and Group A articles are priority reads — both have strong existing search volume and active market movement ahead of June 11.

The most analytically interesting player market is the top goalscorer dead heat between Mbappé and Kane at 15% each. Both lead their national teams and should advance deep into the tournament where scoring opportunities increase. The market cannot separate them — that is a genuine signal.

The most goal contributions market tells a different story. Kane leads at 34% versus Mbappé’s 29%, suggesting the crowd thinks Kane’s creative role gives him an edge in total output even if Mbappé edges the pure goalscoring race.

The goalkeeper clean sheets market features Angus Gunn at 77% — an unusually high probability worth reading before the squad announcement deadline on June 7.

The Neymar market at 80% YES carries $3M in volume — the highest of any will-play contract. An 80% implied probability also means the market assigns a 1-in-5 chance that Neymar misses the tournament entirely. If you are pricing Brazil’s prospects assuming Neymar plays, you are building on an assumption the crowd is not fully comfortable with.

The Messi and Yamal markets at 98% are essentially priced as certainties. The only value is on the NO side if you have specific information the market has not yet priced in.

The Iran market at 91% is the most unusual — a nation-level availability question driven by geopolitical context, not player fitness. One of the few World Cup markets where non-football events could move the price before June 11.

Squad selection markets resolve at the June 7 announcement deadline. You have nine days to trade them — after that, the contracts settle and the opportunity closes.

The most interesting market here is the João Pedro market at 19%. That is a low implied probability for a player who has featured regularly for the national team. The gap between his form and the market’s assessment is worth examining before the deadline.

The USA, Germany, and Netherlands squad markets are all sitting at 50% — the crowd has no strong view yet. These are most likely to move sharply in the 48 to 72 hours before June 7 as squad news leaks. The roundup article covers all three in one read.

Match preview articles publish the day before each fixture — not earlier. Polymarket match prices move significantly in the 48 hours before kickoff as injuries, lineups, and sentiment shift the market.

If you are following the Group D winner market, the Australia vs Türkiye match on June 13 is the first real data point for that group. A dominant Türkiye win would push their group winner probability up sharply before the USA vs Türkiye decider on June 25.

One thing worth understanding before you trade: high volume does not guarantee an efficient price. The winner market has over $1B in volume — one of the most liquid sports prediction markets ever run on the platform. But that does not mean every price is perfectly calibrated.

Brazil at 12% and Argentina at 9% may reflect a crowd preference for European football rather than a genuine assessment of South American tournament quality. The market’s view is the best available signal, but crowds have biases. That is where the analysis on this site adds value.

For a full walkthrough of how to open an account, deposit USDC, and place your first trade, read the complete beginner guide to trading Polymarket World Cup markets.