Kalshi lists over a dozen distinct contract types, each with its own payout criterion, source agency, tick size, and position limit, and as of early 2026 the exchange has processed more than $52 billion in cumulative notional volume across them.
Every contract on the platform is a binary event contract regulated by the CFTC: you buy YES or NO, and the contract settles at $1 if you are correct, $0 if you are wrong.
This guide breaks down each contract type at the specification level so you can compare structures side by side. For deeper strategy, edge cases, and historical resolution data on any individual contract, follow the linked spoke articles throughout.
Key Takeaways
- Every Kalshi contract is a CFTC-regulated binary event contract that settles at $1.00 or $0.00 based on a specific, pre-defined payout criterion.
- Each contract type names a Source Agency whose published data determines the outcome, and Kalshi’s settlement process follows Rule 7.1 when disputes arise.
- Contract types span monetary policy (FED, FEDMENTION), politics (PRES, TRUMPSAY, DEBATE, GOVTSHUTLENGTH), and commodities (gold, oil, wheat).
- Position limits range from $25,000 per strike on word-based contracts to $100 million per strike for eligible contract participants on election markets.
- The minimum tick size across all contracts listed here is $0.01, though settlement mechanics and expiration timing vary widely between types.
How Kalshi’s Binary Event Contracts Work?
Every contract listed on Kalshi is structured the same way at the mechanical level, regardless of whether it tracks a Fed rate decision or a commodity price. The exchange poses a yes-or-no question tied to a specific, verifiable real-world outcome. You buy YES contracts if you believe the event will occur, or NO contracts if you believe it will not.
Each contract is priced between $0.01 and $0.99. That price represents the market’s collective estimate of the probability that the event occurs. A YES contract trading at $0.72 implies a 72% probability. A NO contract on the same event would trade at approximately $0.28, because the two sides of every contract always sum to roughly $1.00.
If the event occurs, every YES contract settles at $1.00. Every NO contract settles at $0.00. If the event does not occur, the reverse applies. Your profit or loss is the difference between the price you paid and the settlement value, minus any applicable trading fees. There is no margin, no leverage, and no partial payouts on any Kalshi contract type.
The critical structural element across all contract types is the Payout Criterion. This is the formal, CFTC-filed rule that defines exactly what must happen for the contract to settle YES.
The payout criterion references a specific data source (the Source Agency), a specific measurement (the Underlying), and a specific threshold or condition. Every contract dispute, every settlement question, and every edge case ultimately comes back to the exact language of the payout criterion filed in the contract’s terms and conditions.
Kalshi is a CFTC-designated contract market (DCM), meaning every contract type is either self-certified or approved by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission before it can trade. The exchange received its DCM designation in November 2020 and listed its first contracts in 2021.
As of March 2026, cumulative notional volume has exceeded $52 billion, with sports and political contracts driving much of the growth in late 2025 and early 2026.
Monetary Policy Contracts
Monetary policy contracts are the backbone of Kalshi’s macro trading offering. Two contract types target the Federal Reserve directly, but from different angles: one tracks rate decisions, the other tracks language.
FED Rate Decision Contracts
FED rate contracts let you trade on whether the upper bound of the target federal funds range will be above or below a specified percentage after a given FOMC meeting. The Source Agency is the United States Federal Reserve System, and the Underlying is the upper bound published on the Fed’s official Open Market Operations page.
The payout criterion is strictly directional: the contract resolves YES if the upper bound is strictly greater than (or strictly less than, depending on the listing) the specified percent value after the meeting. Contracts expire at 2:05 PM ET on the day the Fed releases its post-meeting statement, with settlement no later than the following day.
The Position Accountability Level is 7,000,000 contracts per member. Kalshi lists these contracts up to one year in advance of scheduled FOMC meetings and may add additional percent-level strikes as forecasts shift. The tick size for FED contracts is $0.01.
FEDMENTION Contracts
The FEDMENTION contract falls under Kalshi’s broader NEWMENTION framework, which lets you trade on whether a specific person will say a specific word or phrase during a defined time period. When applied to Federal Reserve speeches, these contracts typically ask whether the Fed Chair will say a given term during a press conference or testimony.
The payout criterion requires the word to appear as a distinct, standalone unit. Plurals and possessives count. Tense changes, conjugations, and closed compound words do not. Open compounds (separated by a space) and hyphenated forms count.
The Source Agency hierarchy varies by listing but typically includes major wire services and news outlets. Position Accountability Levels on word-mention contracts are generally set at $25,000 per strike per member, far lower than rate-decision contracts.
Political and Government Contracts
Political contracts cover elections, presidential rhetoric, debate topics, and government operations. These are among the most actively traded categories on the platform.
Presidential Election Contracts (PRES)
The PRES contract tracks which candidate (or party representative) is inaugurated as President of the United States for a four-year term. The Underlying is the identity and partisan affiliation of the person inaugurated, and the Source Agency is the Office of the President of the United States.
The payout criterion is satisfied when the specified candidate or another representative of the specified party is the first person inaugurated for the term beginning January 20 of the relevant year.
Acting or temporary inaugurations do not count. If no party representative is inaugurated for any reason, including scenarios involving presidential succession, the contract settles to NO.
The Position Limit is $7,000,000 per strike for individuals and $100,000,000 per strike for eligible contract participants (ECPs). The contract expires at 10:00 AM ET on the day following the inauguration event.
TRUMPSAY Contracts
The TRUMPSAY contract is a word-mention contract specifically scoped to public statements by Donald Trump. The Underlying is words used by the President, and the Source Agency list includes the President of the United States plus 16 major news organizations (The New York Times, AP, Bloomberg, Reuters, and others).
Public statements, Truth Social posts, and personal Twitter posts all count toward the payout criterion. Official acts like Executive Orders or signed bills do not. As with all word-mention contracts, grammatical inflections beyond plurals and possessives are excluded.
The Position Accountability Level is $25,000 per strike per member, consistent with other word-based contracts. This contract type shares the same linguistic resolution framework as the FEDMENTION contract but with a narrower entity scope and a broader Source Agency roster.
DEBATE Contracts
DEBATE contract topics allow you to trade on whether a specific political or economic term will be spoken by a candidate during a U.S. presidential debate. The Underlying is the presidential debate itself, and the Source Agency is the public broadcaster of the debate (CNN and ABC were specified for the 2024 cycle).
Kalshi’s approved topic list at the time of self-certification included: tariffs, immigration, immigrants, inflation, Obamacare, Affordable Care Act, climate change, student loan, student debt, Covid, big tech, AI (or artificial intelligence), school choice, crypto, cryptocurrency, bitcoin, and unemployment.
Exact word matches or grammatical inflections (tense, pluralization) satisfy the criterion, but similar topics or synonyms do not. If the scheduled debate does not occur on its date, contracts resolve to NO. The Position Limit is $25,000 per strike per member.
Government Shutdown Length Contracts (GOVTSHUTLENGTH)
Shutdown contracts track the number of days the federal government is at least partially shut down due to a lapse of appropriations during a specified time period. The primary Source Agencies are the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) and the U.S. Office of Personnel Management (OPM), with secondary sources including the New York Times, Wall Street Journal, AP, Reuters, Bloomberg, The Guardian, and Politico.
A shutdown day is counted by checking status at 10:00 AM ET each day. Consecutive calendar days, including weekends and federal holidays, count toward the total. For example, if a shutdown is first in effect at 10:00 AM ET on October 1 and remains in effect at 10:00 AM ET on October 2, the shutdown has lasted at least one day.
Government closures from holidays or weather alone do not count unless they coincide with an actual appropriations lapse. The Position Accountability Level is $25,000 per strike.
Commodity Event Contracts
Commodity event contracts on Kalshi let you trade on whether the price of a physical commodity or commodity futures contract will be above, below, between, or exactly at a specified value during a given time period.
The Underlying is the specified price type (settlement price, closing price, spot price, VWAP, TWAP, or others) of the commodity as published by the designated Source Agency.
Covered commodities include gold, silver, platinum, palladium, copper, crude oil (WTI and Brent), natural gas, heating oil, gasoline, wheat, corn, soybeans, coffee, sugar, cocoa, and cotton. Source Agencies are commodity pricing providers such as ICE Data Services or TradingView. Contract iterations are issued on a recurring basis, typically corresponding to daily price data releases.
The comparison operators in the payout criterion are precisely defined: “above” means strictly greater than, “below” means strictly less than, “between” is inclusive of both endpoints, and “exactly” means equal when rounded to the specified precision.
If no data is published by the Source Agency on a given day and is not expected within a week, the most recently available data resolves the market. The tick size for commodity contracts is $0.01.
Contract Mechanics: Settlement, Position Limits, and Tick Size
Beyond individual contract types, three cross-cutting mechanics apply to every trade on the exchange.
How Kalshi Settles Contracts?
Kalshi settlement follows a centralized resolution model. Every contract’s terms name one or more Source Agencies whose published data determines the outcome. Kalshi’s internal markets team confirms the resolution once the payout criterion is met.
Settlement typically occurs within a few hours after the outcome is known, and the Settlement Date in most contract specs is defined as “no later than the day after the Expiration Date.”
When the outcome is disputed or ambiguous, Kalshi initiates the Market Outcome Review Process under Rule 7.1 (or Rule 6.3) of the KalshiEX Rulebook.
This gives the exchange discretion to determine payouts when source data is unavailable, incomplete, or contested. The Kalshi Member Agreement (v1.6) confirms that all members consent to the jurisdiction of the exchange and its Rulebook.
Some contracts specify a Source Agency hierarchy. The GOVTSHUTLENGTH contract, for example, lists OMB and OPM as primary sources and seven major news organizations as secondary sources.
The secondary sources are only consulted when the primary agencies have not published timely guidance or when there is a conflict between primary sources. This hierarchical approach prevents a single source failure from leaving a contract in limbo, but it also means the exchange retains meaningful discretion in ambiguous cases.
Revisions to the Underlying made after the Expiration Date are explicitly excluded from settlement across all contract types. If the Federal Reserve corrects a published rate figure after expiration, that correction does not change the contract outcome. The data that existed at the Expiration Time governs.
Position Limits and Accountability Levels
Kalshi position limits vary significantly by contract type and by member classification. The table below summarizes the key tiers.
| Contract Type | Individual Limit | ECP Limit |
|---|---|---|
| FED Rate Decision | 7,000,000 contracts | Not separately specified |
| PRES (Election) | $7,000,000 per strike | $100,000,000 per strike |
| TRUMPSAY | $25,000 per strike | Not separately specified |
| FEDMENTION / NEWMENTION | $25,000 per strike | Not separately specified |
| DEBATE | $25,000 per strike | Not separately specified |
| GOVTSHUTLENGTH | $25,000 per strike | Not separately specified |
Note the distinction between “Position Limit” (hard cap) and “Position Accountability Level” (triggers enhanced reporting or review). Some contract specs use one term, others use the other. The Kalshi Member Agreement and the specific contract terms govern which applies.
The PRES contract is the only type in this cluster that explicitly defines a separate, higher tier for Eligible Contract Participants. ECPs include institutions, high-net-worth individuals, and other entities that meet the CFTC’s criteria for sophisticated market participation.
For all other contract types listed here, the same limit applies regardless of member classification. Commodity contracts may have different limits depending on the specific listing, and those are set at the exchange’s discretion at issuance.
Tick Size and Minimum Price
The Kalshi tick size across all contract types covered in this guide is $0.01. This means the smallest price increment at which you can place an order is one cent. Since every contract settles at $1.00, the price you pay (from $0.01 to $0.99) directly represents the market-implied probability of the event occurring.
The Settlement Value for every contract type is $1.00. There is no leverage, no margin, and no partial settlement. You either receive $1.00 per contract (correct) or $0.00 (incorrect).
This uniform tick structure means the platform operates differently from traditional options or futures markets where tick sizes vary by product and affect the minimum spread. On Kalshi, the minimum spread between the best bid and best ask is always at least $0.01 for every contract.
For contracts trading near certainty (above $0.95) or near zero probability (below $0.05), the $0.01 tick represents a proportionally larger percentage move, which has implications for liquidity and order flow in those ranges.
Expiration Timing Across Contract Types
Expiration timing is one of the most underappreciated differences between Kalshi contract types. It determines when trading stops, when the Underlying is measured, and how quickly you receive settlement.
| Contract | Expiration Trigger | Expiration Time | Last Trading Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| FED | Fed statement release for the meeting | 2:05 PM ET | 1:55 PM ET |
| FEDMENTION | End of specified time period or word spoken | Varies by listing | Varies |
| PRES | Inauguration or 1 year after popular vote | 10:00 AM ET | Same as expiration |
| TRUMPSAY | Word spoken or date reached | 10:00 AM ET | Same as expiration |
| DEBATE | Word spoken during debate or next 10 AM ET | 10:00 AM ET | 10:00 AM ET |
| GOVTSHUTLENGTH | Shutdown ends or time period expires | 10:00 AM ET | Same as expiration |
| COMMODITIES | End of specified time period | Varies by listing | Varies |
For FED contracts, notice the 10-minute gap between the Last Trading Time (1:55 PM ET) and the Expiration Time (2:05 PM ET). The Fed statement typically drops at 2:00 PM ET, so the contract stops trading five minutes before the statement and expires five minutes after. This compressed window means price discovery happens entirely in the order book before the event, not after.
Word-mention contracts (FEDMENTION, TRUMPSAY, DEBATE) can expire early. If the word is spoken before the scheduled expiration date, the contract expires on an accelerated timeline, often within hours. This early-expiration mechanic means these contracts can settle at $1.00 well before the stated deadline.
Master Comparison Table
| Contract | Underlying | Source Agency | Tick Size | Position Limit / Accountability | Settlement Timing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FED | Upper bound of target federal funds range | U.S. Federal Reserve | $0.01 | 7,000,000 contracts/member | Day after expiration |
| FEDMENTION | Words used by specified entity | Major news outlets (varies) | $0.01 | $25,000/strike | Day after expiration |
| PRES | Identity of inaugurated President | Office of the President | $0.01 | $7M individual / $100M ECP | Day after expiration |
| TRUMPSAY | Words used by Donald Trump | President + 16 news orgs | $0.01 | $25,000/strike | Day after expiration |
| DEBATE | Words used by debate candidates | Debate broadcaster | $0.01 | $25,000/strike | Day after expiration |
| GOVTSHUTLENGTH | Days of government shutdown | OMB, OPM + secondary news | $0.01 | $25,000/strike | Day after expiration |
| COMMODITIES | Commodity price (various types) | ICE Data Services, TradingView | $0.01 | Varies by listing | Day after expiration |
Explore Each Contract in Depth
Each contract type above has a dedicated spoke article covering trading strategy, edge cases, historical resolution examples, and positioning tactics. The pillar you are reading covers the spec-level summary only.
- FED rate contracts breaks down how rate-decision contracts behave around FOMC meetings, including pre-statement pricing patterns and expiration timing risks.
- Kalshi settlement covers Rule 7.1, the Market Outcome Review Process, Source Agency hierarchies, and what happens when the data is delayed or contested.
- FEDMENTION contract explains how word-mention contracts resolve, why plurals count but tense changes do not, and how to evaluate press conference language risk.
- Commodity event contracts details how price-type selection (settlement vs. spot vs. VWAP) affects resolution, plus commodity-specific volatility patterns.
- TRUMPSAY contract covers the Source Agency roster, what counts as a “public statement,” and why Executive Orders are excluded from the payout criterion.
- PRES contract walks through how inauguration-based settlement works, acting-president exclusions, and the ECP position limit tier for institutional traders.
- DEBATE contract topics lists the full approved topic vocabulary, explains how synonym exclusions work, and reviews 2024 debate resolution outcomes.
- Shutdown contracts covers day-counting rules, the 10:00 AM ET checkpoint, and how holiday or weather closures interact with appropriations lapses.
- Kalshi position limits provides the complete accountability-level table across all contract types and explains the distinction between hard limits and accountability thresholds.
- Kalshi tick size goes deeper on minimum price mechanics, settlement value math, and how the $0.01 tick interacts with fee structures.
Frequently Asked Questions
What types of contracts does Kalshi offer?
Kalshi offers binary event contracts across monetary policy (FED rate decisions, FEDMENTION word contracts), politics (presidential elections, TRUMPSAY, debate topics, government shutdown length), commodities (gold, oil, wheat, and others), and additional categories including sports, economics, and culture. Every contract resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 based on a pre-defined payout criterion tied to a named Source Agency.
How does Kalshi determine the outcome of a contract?
Each contract specifies one or more Source Agencies whose published data determines the Expiration Value. Kalshi’s markets team confirms when the payout criterion is met. If the data is unavailable or disputed, the exchange can invoke the Market Outcome Review Process under Rule 7.1 of the KalshiEX Rulebook.
What is the minimum trade size on Kalshi?
The minimum tick size across all major contract types is $0.01, meaning the smallest price at which you can buy or sell a contract is one cent. Since contracts settle at $1.00, a $0.01 purchase price implies roughly a 1% market-estimated probability for the event. There is no minimum number of contracts required per trade.
Are Kalshi contracts the same as sports betting?
No. Kalshi operates as a CFTC-designated contract market, not a sportsbook. Contracts are classified as commodity derivatives, not wagers. Prices are set by peer-to-peer trading on an exchange order book, not by a house. There are no pattern day-trading restrictions, and the contracts are generally not subject to the same compliance rules as company-linked securities, according to Kalshi’s Finance FAQ.
What Matters When Choosing a Kalshi Contract?
The most important variable when selecting a contract type is the Source Agency. Your position’s outcome depends entirely on what the named source publishes, not on what “actually happened” by some other measure.
A Fed rate contract hinges on the Federal Reserve’s posted upper bound. A commodity contract hinges on the price published by ICE Data Services or TradingView. If the Source Agency is delayed or silent, Rule 7.1 governs what happens next.
Position limits are the second consideration. If you are a retail trader, word-mention contracts like TRUMPSAY and DEBATE cap you at $25,000 per strike. Election contracts allow up to $7 million per strike. That difference defines which contract types can support meaningful position sizes and which are capped at small-notional plays.
Expiration timing is the third factor most traders underweight. FED contracts expire at 2:05 PM ET, just minutes after the Fed releases its statement. PRES contracts can remain open for up to a year after the popular vote if no qualifying inauguration occurs.
Commodity contracts cycle on a daily or weekly basis. These timing structures shape liquidity patterns, premium decay, and exit optionality in ways that vary dramatically across contract types.
Kalshi continues to add new contract types and new iterations of existing types as regulatory clearance and member demand allow. The specifications documented here reflect the CFTC-filed contract terms as of May 2026.
Contract terms can be updated through the self-certification process, so always verify the current spec sheet on Kalshi’s regulatory page before sizing a position.
